Before Monday, July 1, 2024, when the Indian stock market begins for business, here’s all you need to know: A muted start to today’s trading activity on the NSE Nifty 50 index is suggested by mixed trade in global peers and GIFT Nifty’s muted indicators.
GIFT Nifty futures quoted at 24,133 levels at 7:00 AM, suggesting a likely flat start.
The second half of the 2024 calendar year’s trade activity began today. The major indices, the Nifty 50 and the S&P BSE Sensex, increased by almost 10% apiece in F1-CY2024. The Nifty has really increased by 6.5% over the past four weeks.
The Fed Chair’s speech and the release of US and Indian manufacturing PMI data will be the main events of interest this coming week. There is a positive undercurrent, and there isn’t any immediate threat to the domestic market. The Union Budget recommendations, which would control the market in the medium run, will be the focus of attention, according to a note from Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
worldwide attitude
This morning, the Asia-Pacific region’s markets showed a mixed trend. The Nikkei in Japan rose by 0.5%. The Kospi fell 0.3%, while the Australian market benchmarks, the S&P ASX 200 and All Ordinaries, fell by 0.5% apiece.
Investors will also be eagerly monitoring the French election, as early polls point to a probable change in leadership.
The US market finished Friday down, with the Dow Jones declining by 0.1%. The S&P 500 fell by 0.4%, while the NASDAQ fell by 0.7%.
The yield on US 10-year bonds increased to 4.4%. Regarding commodities, Gold futures remained stable at $2,335 per ounce, while Brent Crude Oil was observed to be circling at $85 per barrel.
Flows II and DII
On Friday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) netted equities valued at Rs 23 crore. On the other hand, shares worth Rs 6,658 crore were net purchased by domestic institutional investors (DIIs).
Within the derivatives market, the FIIs index long-short ratio was almost 5:1, indicating that there were almost 5 long bets for each short position in the index futures. Long positions in the FIIs net index increased to 82.50%, while short positions decreased to 17.50%.
For the fifteenth day in a row, FIIs net bought index futures on Friday. FIIs increased their net long positions in index futures by 27,776 at a cost of Rs 1,711.34 crore. FIIs largely purchased 25,281 contracts of Nifty futures as of June 30.
Conversely, the index long-short ratio for DIIs and retail investors was close to 0.5, which means that there were almost two short positions for every index long.
Monday, July 1st trading plan – Is it the right time for you to purchase or sell in the Nifty, Bank Nifty? Here’s what professionals advise:
Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates’ AVP of Technical and Derivatives Research, Hrishikesh Yedve
Technically speaking, the Nifty failed to close above the trend line resistance and encountered resistance around the 24,200 levels. In the immediate run, the rise may reach levels of 24,500–24,600 if the index remains above 24,200.
Likewise, the Bank Nifty has created a bearish candle close to the resistance of the trend line. Therefore, 53,200 will serve as a barrier for Bank Nifty in the near future. The rise may continue towards 54,000 if the index holds above 53,200 levels.
Ashwin Ramani works for SAMCO Securities as a technical and derivatives analyst.
The Index was range-bound for the majority of Friday due to call writers (Bears) leaving and writing on the Nifty 24,000 Strike and substantial call writing on the 24,100 & 24,200.
On the daily chart, the Nifty has produced a candle that resembles a shooting star, suggesting some slight weakness. At the 24,000 strike, the put writers, or Bulls, hold a marginal advantage over the call writers, or Bears, with 2.25 lakh contracts. The option activity during this strike will offer clues on the future direction of the Nifty.
On the daily chart, the Bank Nifty has created an evening star pattern, which is seen as a negative reversal signal. In Bank Nifty, strong call writing and put writers pulling out were seen during strikes from 52,600 to 53,100. Cues regarding Bank Nifty’s future direction will be given by the option activity near 52,000 Strike.
Om Mehra, SAMCO Securities Technical Analyst
The Nifty dropped 0.14 percent to close at 24,011, having reached a fresh high of 24,174. The index turned around at the 24,180 level, or the 2.618 percent Fibonacci retracement.
Nifty has formed an inverted hammer with a bearish outlook on the daily time frame. The 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level stays around 24,000 in the hourly chart. This threshold may be extended to 23,850 if it is violated.
The Bank Nifty’s daily chart shows a bearish pattern known as an evening star, with the daily RSI at 65 and a downward trend towards the average line. The support is at 51,700, while the resistance is still in the 52,900–53,950 zone. Until the 53,000 barrier is crossed, it is suggested to adopt a “sell on rise” strategy for the following session.
Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities, Kunal Shah
Friday saw the first significant drop in the Bank Nifty index following a week of nonstop gains. Follow-through selling is necessary for the selling pressure to continue, or else the index can become trapped in a range of consolidation. The put side’s greatest open interest is concentrated at 52,000, which serves as the immediate support. The 52,700–53,000 range represents the put side’s immediate resistance.
Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, Rupak De
The Nifty ended a four-day winning streak as it produced a small-bodied red candle. As the index closed well above the key moving average, sentiment is still very high. But following a run of gains, the Nifty appears a little heavy, and if it stays below 24,000, profit booking may occur. If there is a significant decline below 24,000, the index may, on the lower end, short-term fall towards 23,850/23,700. At 24,200, resistance is discernible at the upper end.
Update on Primary Market
The second day of subscriptions for the Nephro Care India IPO, an NSE SME, will continue to be accepted. On Day 1 of the promotion period, the issue had 15.32 subscriptions, indicating a positive reaction.