Overview of the stock market July 15, 2024, Monday: With IT shares leading the way last week, the BSE Sensex and the Nifty could try to reach all-time highs in trading today.
Before closing Friday at 80,519 and 24,502, respectively, with advances of 622 and 186 points, the S&P BSE Sensex reached an all-time high of 80,894 and the Nifty 24,592.
This week’s Q1 earnings will gradually gather up steam when major companies like Jio Financial Services, HDFC AMC, and HDFC Life report their results on Monday.
Aside from that, investors will also be impacted by a spike in CPI-based inflation to 5.08 percent in June and a stronger-than-expected 5.9 percent growth in India’s industrial production in May. The WPI-based inflation figures will be made public today.
GIFT Nifty futures opened at 24,619 levels at 7:00 AM, indicating that the Nifty 50 index will likely open with a 50-odd point gap on Monday.
In a note, Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, stated that investors will be closely monitoring economic data this week, including the US Fed chair speech, China GDP, EuroZone CPI inflation, and ECB policy.
Investors throughout the world will be closely monitoring the outcome of the next US elections in the wake of Donald Trump’s attempted assassination at a rally on Sunday, during which the former US President sustained an ear damage.
worldwide attitude
The US market saw gains of up to 0.6% on Friday as trade in tech shares recovered. For the first time ever, the Dow Jones closed above the 40,000 threshold. The NASDAQ closed at values close to 18,400, while the S&P 500 was trading around 5,600.
Pre-market trading for stock futures showed a 0.2% increase following Donald Trump’s attempted assassination.
The yield on the US 10-year bond was quoted at 4.24 percent. In terms of commodities, Gold futures were stable at $2,400 while Brent Crude Oil futures were stuck at $85 per barrel.
The Asia-Pacific region’s equity markets had a mixed trend. The gains in the Australian stock indices reached 0.9% apiece. Kospi was not elevated. Taiwan, Shanghai, and Hang Seng all saw increases of up to 0.5%. Today’s trading on the Nikkei was suspended in Japan.
FII and DII trading operations
On July 12, a net amount of Rs 4,021.60 crore worth of equities were purchased by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) on the cash market. On the other side, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) sold shares for a net total of Rs 1,651.45 crore on Friday.
FIIs were net buyers of 20,763 index futures contracts in the derivatives market on Friday, worth a total of Rs 1,414.40 crore. 12,431 Nifty futures contracts and 8,156 Bank Nifty futures contracts were net bought by FIIs.
As a result, in index futures, FII’s long-short ratio increased to 3.8:1. According to this ratio, for every short bet, FIIs have close to four long holdings in index futures. 79.35 percent of FIIs were long index futures, compared to 20.65 percent who were short.
However, the index long-short ratio for DIIs and individual investors stayed about 0.5:1, or two index short bets for every long trade.
Monday, July 15, trading plan – Is it the right time for you to purchase or sell in the Nifty, Bank Nifty? Here’s what industry insiders advise:
Angel One’s Rajesh Bhosale is an equity technical analyst.
Prices are steadily rising on the daily chart, and several tiny body candles inside a range have been noticed. Throughout the week, dips were purchased, and the bulls found firm support in the 24,150–24,200 zone. Conversely, Friday’s robust purchasing in the IT sector caused the resistance level between 24,450 and 24,500 to be broken.
Going forward, there are no indications of weakening and bulls continue to be in control thanks to sector rotation, even though the markets appear overbought by a number of indicators.
For improved trading chances, a stock-centric approach that focuses on the day’s theme would be the best course of action. For the Nifty, the 24,200–24,150 zone requires careful observation. Should this threshold be crossed, it might be the first indication of vulnerability, potentially falling to 24,000 or less before the budget.
On the other hand, because prices are trading in unfamiliar ground, there is no obvious resistance. But the technically significant golden retracement of the panic decline shown on election result day is located around 24,610, along with 24,700, which are considered important resistance levels.
Ashwin Ramani works for SAMCO Securities as a technical and derivatives analyst.
On Friday, the Nifty reached a fresh all-time high of 24,592. During the 24,300 and 24,400 Strike, put writing significantly outpaced call writing. Additionally, strong put writing was noted near the 24,500. At the 24,500 strike, the put writers (1.62 lakh contracts) have a little advantage over the call writers (1.58 lakh contracts), and the option activity during this strike will give clues about the future direction of the Nifty.
On July 12, the Bank Nifty displayed a gravestone doji pattern, signifying indecisiveness. In the Bank Nifty, significant call writing was seen at the 52,500 and 52,700 strikes. The option action at the 52,500 strike, where the call writers have large positions built, will give clues about the path Bank Nifty will take in the upcoming week.
Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates’ AVP of Technical and Derivatives Research, Hrishikesh Yedve
Technically speaking, the Nifty has broken through the 24,460 barrier and nearly reached the 24,600 short-term target. For new positive momentum to start, the index needs to break over the 24,600–24,620 resistance line. Until then, investors should think about purchasing the Nifty at dips, since support is located around 24,170.
The Bank Nifty made a doji candle close to the support of the 21-day EMA. In Bank Nifty, one should use a buy-on-dips strategy as long as the index remains above 51,750. 52,800 and 53,000 will be significant resistance levels on the upward.
Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, Rupak De
Due to a robust technical breakthrough in IT titans, the Nifty has shown a consolidation breakout on the daily chart. From here, the attitude appears to be improving as the popular overlays and indications point to more gains.
The Nifty has support near 24,400, where put writers have observed a substantial buildup of short positions. The street should benefit from the buy-on-dips approach till the Nifty drops below 24,400. On the plus side, the present upswing may continue to 24,800.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, provided Bank Nifty.
Given that the Bank Nifty index looks to have found support at the 21 EMA on the daily timeframe on Thursday, the sentiment may continue to lean in favour of the bulls. As of right now, the buy-on-dips approach appears to be the most advantageous until the price drops below 51,700. Resistance is evident at 52,800 on the higher end; if the index breaks over 52,800, it may continue rising towards 54,000.
stocks prohibited by F&O
Aditya Birla Fashion Retail, Balrampur Chini, Bandhan Bank, Chambal Fertiliser, GMR Infra, GNFC, Indian Energy Exchange (IEX), India Cements, Indus Tower, Piramal Enterprises, and RBL Bank are among the eleven stocks that are prohibited from trading futures and options (F&O) on Monday.
to list right now on the NSE SME platform. Due to the high demand for both IPOs in the grey market, the NSE expects them to list at a premium of 90% over their respective issue prices.
primary market report
On Monday, subscriptions for six SME initial public offerings (IPOs) will be accepted, with two listed on the BSE and four on the NSE.
The NSE will start subscriptions for the Rs 115.64 crore Tunwal E-Motors initial public offering (IPO) at a fixed price of Rs 59 per equity share. The issue is open to bids in multiples of 2,000 shares. The deadline is July 18th.
The Sahaj Solar IPO is scheduled to conclude today. The publication has received 89.5 subscriptions thus far.
Comparably, at the conclusion of Day 1 of the offer period on Friday, Prizor Viztech and Sati Poly Plast had received up to 12.3 and 20 subscriptions, respectively.
Apart from that, the BSE SME platform is offering subscriptions for Aelea Commodities and Three M Paper Boards.