Pre-market disclosure July 11, 2024, Thursday: Ahead of the TCS results, the equity benchmark indices, the Nifty and the BSE Sensex, are probably going to open Thursday’s trading session on a cautiously upbeat tone.
GIFT Nifty futures closed at 24,395 at 7:00 AM, slightly above yesterday’s closing Nifty July futures price of 24,355.
The weekly Nifty options expiry may cause a tug-of-war between the bulls and bears in the market today. The optimism may be somewhat helped by encouraging signals from Asian counterparts, but analysts think the Nifty may encounter strong resistance close to 24,460 levels.
worldwide attitude
Wednesday saw strong closing gains for the US market, up more than 1%, with the S&P 500 breaking through the 5,600 barrier for the first time ever. The main topic of discussion tonight will be CPI inflation, which is predicted to have decreased to 3.1% in June from 3.3% in May.
The yield on US 10-year bonds decreased slightly to 4.28 percent. In the commodities market, Brent Crude Oil futures stayed around $85 per barrel, while Gold futures increased little to $2,380 per ounce.
This morning, the Asia-Pacific region’s equity markets were trading strongly. Each of the Australian stock indices increased by about 0.9%. Taiwan, the Kospi, and the Nikkei in Japan all increased by almost 1% apiece.
FII and DII trading operations
On July 10, for the sixth trading day in a row, net purchases in the cash segment were foreign institutional investors (FIIs). They invested a total of Rs 583.96 crore in shares. Yesterday, net purchases of stocks by domestic institutional investors (DIIs) was Rs 1,082.40 crore.
After a long period of inaction, FIIs began to sell derivatives aggressively; yesterday, they net sold 15,656 contracts worth Rs 3,424.99 crore. 15,656 Nifty futures contracts and 29,903 Bank Nifty futures contracts were net sold by FIIs.
Foreign investors now hold four long positions for every bet on the short side in index futures, as the FIIs index long-short ratio fell to 4:1 from above 5:1 in the previous five trading sessions. At the close of business on Wednesday, the FIIs net index had 79.77 percent longs and 20.23 percent shorts.
However, the index long-short ratio for DIIs and individual investors stayed about 0.5:1, or two index short bets for every long trade.
F&O Weekly Expiration Cues
There are more open positions in Nifty Call options than Puts, as indicated by the Nifty PCR of 0.73 for options expiration on July 11 (this Thursday).
The Nifty Calls have the most open interest (OI) at 24,500, with 24,600, 24,400, and 25,000 following behind. On the other hand, the strike price of 24,000 yields the highest OI for Nifty Puts, followed by 24,200 and 24,300.
The largest OI rise in trades yesterday was seen at 24,400 and 24,500; this suggests that the 24,440–24,500 levels could be potential resistance.
Trading plan for July 11th, Thursday: Is it the right time for you to purchase or sell in the Nifty, Bank Nifty? Here’s what industry insiders advise:
Angel One’s Rajesh Bhosale is an equity technical analyst.
As of right now, prices are still high and moving in a range, indicating that traders are waiting for a trigger to make significant changes. In the future, the impending results season may serve as such a catalyst; any underwhelming performance among the heavyweights may ultimately set off the long-overdue market fall.
Important levels for the weekly expiry are marked by the trading range for Thursday, which is noted to be between 24,140 and 24,100 on the downside and 24,460 and 24,500 on the upside. Traders ought to keep a careful eye on these levels and modify their tactics as necessary.
Ashwin Ramani works for SAMCO Securities as a technical and derivatives analyst.
On the daily chart, the Nifty has created a hanging man pattern, which is seen as a negative reversal signal. The 24,400 & 24,500 Strike saw call writers and put writers (Bulls) leave the market, which caused the Index to fall sharply lower on Wednesday.
In 2024, the sentiment indicator, put-call ratio (PCR), crossed over 1.5 for the second time and closed at 1.49. Right now, there are indications that the market is overheating, so it is best to proceed with caution. You might get indications about the future direction of Nifty from the option activity at the 24,200 Strike.
The call writers, or Bears, have solidified their position near the 52,500 Strike on the Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty is probably going to find firm support at the 51,900 mark. A break through below this threshold may trigger new shorts.
Om Mehra, SAMCO Securities Technical Analyst
Nifty broke through its previous swing low of 24,168 on Wednesday as a result of the intraday decline, suggesting a minor waning of the positive trend. The rising trendline’s support, however, is still at 24,050. If this barrier is breached, the Nifty can drop even lower, all the way to 23,900. Nifty has to close above 24,460 in order to continue its upward trajectory.
A bearish daily candle with the same open and high was produced on the Bank Nifty. The immediate support of 51,990 could be breached, which would cause a drop towards the 51,300–51,200 levels. At 52,600, the 10-day moving average (DMA) serves as immediate resistance at this point. Furthermore, the daily RSI dropped from 60 to 57 levels, suggesting that the main trend is becoming weaker.
Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates’ AVP of Technical and Derivatives Research, Hrishikesh Yedve
From a technical perspective, the Nifty has consumed the bullish candle from the day before and created a hanging man candle close to the record high. This pattern indicates that 24,461 will serve as the index’s temporary barrier. On the down side, the index will find strong support at 24,200 and 24,000.
Right now, the Bank Nifty is trading close to the bottom of the short-term consolidation range, which is between 52,000 and 53,360. It is likely that the Bank Nifty will see a relief rebound if it stays above its 52,000 support level. Conversely, a sustained decline below 52,000 levels would lead to additional Bank Nifty losses.
Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, Rupak De
On the daily chart, an engulfing bearish pattern has developed. Furthermore, significant call writing combined with respectable put unwinding before to the weekly expiry raises the prospect of a correction. 24,270 is the number for immediate support. The Nifty may drop to 24,100–24,000 below 24,270. Resistance is located at 24,350–24,400 on the higher end. Above 24,400, anticipate another round of brief covering.
Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities, Kunal Shah
The Bank Nifty index was unable to break above the 52,500 barrier, where call writers are active, due to ongoing selling pressure from higher levels. The index is currently trading close to a critical 52,000–51,800 support zone. Should it sustain this level, there may be a retreat recovery back towards 52,500. If it maintains its move above 52,500, it will open doors for 53,000; but, if it breaks below 51,800, it may fall much lower, maybe into the 51,300–51,000 range.
fresh ads
Ambey Laboratories, a SME, will make its market debut on Thursday. The grey market premium trend points to a potential 40% listing gain for the stock.
stocks prohibited by F&O
Aditya Birla Fashion Retail, Balrampur Chini, Bandhan Bank, Chambal Fertiliser, GNFC, Indian Energy Exchange, India Cements, Indus Tower, Piramal Enterprises, and RBL Bank are among the nine equities that are prohibited from trading futures and options (F&O) on Wednesday.
primary market report
Today is the opening of the SME platform for subscriptions to Sahaj Solar’s IPO. With the sale of 20.96 lakh equity shares at a price range of Rs 171 to Rs 180 per equity share, the business intends to generate up to RS 37.73 crore. The SME segment’s Effwa Infra & Research and Ganesh Green Bharat IPOs will also close for subscription today. As of the end of Day 2 of the offer period, the latter had received up to 50.2 times as many subscriptions as the former, which had received up to 33.5 times as many thus far.